Serono's (maker of Rebif) latest quarterly financial report exposes some interesting details. For starters, they're making a hefty profit-- no surprise. But past the raw financials, they reveal that Rebif currently has a ~17% US market share (up from ~13% last year), with a goal of achieving 30% by 2006. Perhaps most interesting is that Antegren is viewed as their biggest threat-- and that Rebif is essentially at Antegren's mercy: if Antegren does exceedingly well, it will destroy Rebif's market share. This is a rather obvious conclusion, but we should not overlook the implication-- analysts seriously consider the idea that Antegren could actually dominate the other treatments in efficacy-- that's hopeful!

"Serono SA, Europe's largest biotechnology company, said third-quarter profit rose 47 percent, boosted by demand for the multiple sclerosis medicine Rebif and payment from a partner...

Serono plans to grab 30 percent of the $2 billion U.S. market for MS drugs by 2006. Reaching that goal will depend on Serono's ability to defend its market against a new MS treatment, Antegren, being developed by Biogen Idec Inc. and its Irish partner Elan Corp...

``That's the big problem we have with Serono; it's not in their hands, they have to sit and wait and see how Antegren is doing,'' said Birgit Kulhoff, an analyst at Bank Sal. Oppenheim in Zurich, who rates Serono shares ``neutral.''...

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Full Article Text Serono 3rd-Qtr Net Income Rises 47% on Rebif Drug

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Serono SA, Europe's largest biotechnology company, said third-quarter profit rose 47 percent, boosted by demand for the multiple sclerosis medicine Rebif and payment from a partner.

Net income increased to $162.5 million, or $10.76 a bearer share, from $110.5 million, or $6.98, a year earlier. The average estimate of five analysts polled by Bloomberg News was for profit of $145 million.

The company is ``on track to deliver'' on its full year forecast, Chief Executive Officer Ernesto Bertarelli said in the statement. Serono said previously it expects net income growth this year of at least 20 percent as more doctors prescribe Rebif in the U.S., where No. 1 drugmaker Pfizer Inc. helps market the drug. U.S. sales of Rebif jumped 53 percent to $77.3 million in the third quarter.

Serono plans to grab 30 percent of the $2 billion U.S. market for MS drugs by 2006. Reaching that goal will depend on Serono's ability to defend its market against a new MS treatment, Antegren, being developed by Biogen Idec Inc. and its Irish partner Elan Corp. The two companies hope to win U.S. approval for Antegren in November.

``That's the big problem we have with Serono; it's not in their hands, they have to sit and wait and see how Antegren is doing,'' said Birgit Kulhoff, an analyst at Bank Sal. Oppenheim in Zurich, who rates Serono shares ``neutral.''

``I don't think Rebif sales will fall off the cliff,'' she added. ``The problem is you can't say if Rebif will continue to grow even at a slower pace or will it be flat to declining.''

Shares of Serono have fallen almost 20 percent since Feb. 17, the day before Biogen Idec and Elan said they were planning to ask the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for approval a year earlier than expected.

Rebif

Rebif, introduced in the U.S. in 2002, accounted for about half of Serono' sales in the third quarter. The drug mainly competes against Biogen Idec's Avonex. Revenue from Rebif rose 24 percent to $263.5 million, lifting total sales of Serono products almost 12 percent to $518 million.

The drug had a U.S. market share of 16.7 percent of total prescriptions at the end of the third quarter from 13.4 percent at the end of 2003.

Biogen Idec and Elan in May said they had submitted Antegren to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for marketing approval. After discussions with the regulator, the companies decided that data from the first year of two 24-month studies was strong enough to file for approval. No multiple sclerosis product has yet been approved with less than two years of data.

In June, the FDA granted the drug priority review. This means the regulator may decide whether to approve the drug about six months from submission rather than the usual 10 months. The accelerated process is given to drugs that could be advances over existing drugs.

Serono posted total revenue of almost $634 million in the third quarter. This included an exceptional payment of $67 million from an undisclosed partner, Serono said.

The company said it had $2.2 billion in liquid assets at the end of the third quarter.

New Drugs, Raptiva

Serono, which ranks behind Amgen Inc. and Genentech Inc., has said it's interested in purchasing new therapies to boost its product range outside the areas of multiple sclerosis, fertility, growth and metabolic disease.

The company's most recently introduced drug is Raptiva, used to treat psoriasis, a disease that causes patches on the skin that can itch, bleed and crack.

The drug won European Union approval in September, and Serono has said it plans to introduce the drug in ``several'' countries including Germany and the U.K. this year, and in the rest of the EU in 2005.

Raptiva is sold in the U.S. and Japan by Genentech. Serono has introduced the drug in Switzerland and Argentina and has approval to sell it in Mexico and Brazil.

To contact the reporter on this story: Carey Sargent in London at csargent3@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Rohner at mrohner@bloomberg.net.