They are talking about "blockbusters" for MS over the next 10 years. I think that means a drug with over US$ 1 billion in annual revenues. They may be right that there aren't any on the horizon for MS, but I don't think it's correct that there won't be any new drugs in the next 10 years which are far more effective than anything we have today, including Tysabri.
FDA's Likely Approval to Relaunch Tysabri, Despite Rare Fatal Side Effects, Demonstrates Significant Need for Effective Treatments Against Multiple Sclerosis
Despite Active Pipeline, No Blockbuster Drugs Expected to Emerge in Next Decade, According to a New Study from Decision Resources
May 02, 2006 - PRNewswire - Decision Resources, Inc., one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and health care issues, finds that the likely reintroduction of Biogen Idec/Elan's Tysabri (natalizumab) in the United States, despite rare fatal side effects, is a testimony to the high unmet need for efficacious treatments against multiple sclerosis (MS).
The new Pharmacor report entitled Multiple Sclerosis finds that a recent recommendation by a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advisory panel to relaunch Tysabri will result in the return of the drug to the U.S. market this summer and its launch in Europe by the end of 2006. Tysabri was voluntarily pulled from shelves by Biogen Idec/Elan earlier this year following rare fatal cases of progressive multifocal encephalopathy. The report also finds that, although the pipeline to treat MS is remarkably active, no blockbuster drugs are expected to emerge in the market through 2015.
"Although Tysabri will be a player in the market following its relaunch because of its significant efficacy, neurologists say they are uncomfortable administering this drug as a first-line therapy in light of the potentially fatal side-effects," said Andrea Witt, Ph.D., analyst at Decision Resources, Inc. "One physician indicated that he would prescribe Tysabri only to a patient in 'desperate straits' because of the risks associated with the drug. Based on these factors and other key findings, we forecast that neither Tysabri nor any emerging drug in the dynamic MS pipeline will become blockbusters in the next ten years."
http://www.pharmalive.com/News/index.cf ... egoryid=10