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Postby opalgem » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:14 am

:?: Hello, everyone one. Thanks for letting me join your fine group. I am hoping to learn as much as I can about MS and the Dx process. I am in limbo myself still going through all the testing.

I was Dx'd with Fibromyalgia 3 years ago, however a new GP has since decided that the progression of my symptoms as well as new ones are looking more to be MS than just Fibro related. He sent me to a Neuro so the search is on.

I am now waiting for results of my MRI and numerous other tests where goo and wires were applied to my head and body (lol). The irony for me is that my Husband of 6 years and his mother as well both have MS. I have never really heard much about it before I met him and his family. They seemed to recognize it in me right away.

I jept brushing off the symptoms over the years until they could no longer be ignored away. I am not sure if it is MS at this point, but I am looking for answers and I find many of you here are in the same situation. Thanks again for allowing me to be a part of this great group of people.
Judy
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welcome

Postby wilson » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:31 am

Welcome. I am sure you will find this site abundent with great ideas and help. I think they are some wonderful things in the pipeleine that will help all of us in the next 5-10 years.

Someday, I am hoping ms diagnosis will not be such a severe blow to our outlook for the future. Perhaps a reaction of finding out that you have type 2 diabetes? Dangerous, but with the proper medication and lifestyle, you can lead a normal life.


I am wondering...is anyone a statistician? What are the chances of the husband and mother-in-law having MS and now the wife?

Can you trasmit CPN to other folks?
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Postby Arron » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:41 am

Opalgem-- welcome to the site. You are amongst friends and I hope you feel free to share your questions, concerns and knowledge with us freely. Wilson-- I was thinking the exact same thing. This is definitely not the first time I have heard of such a thing, though it is all anecdotal. Perhaps one of our more tenacious epidemiological researchers can find the statistics. What an amazing clue as to the source of MS it would be if people married to people with MS had a higher incidence of classical auto-immune disorders versus the general populace.
Last edited by Arron on Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:10 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Disclaimer: Any information you find on this site should not be considered medical advice. All decisions should be made with the consent of your doctor, otherwise you are at your own risk.
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Postby bromley » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:48 am

I'll have a go at the probability question. You often see different probabilities quoted for the chance of getting MS - it's between 1 in 500 to 1 in 1,000. So let's say the chance of getting MS is 1 in 750 (for those in countries like Canada, UK etc).

The chance of your husband's mother getting it was 1 in 750. The chance of your husband getting it was higher as his mother had it (1 in 50 is usually quoted). The chance of Opalgem getting it was 1 in 750.

So the chances of all three of you getting it was:

1 in 750 times 1 in 50 times 1 in 750.

I haven't got a calculator handy, but it must be in the millions (or tens of millions). I've also not adjusted for the gender difference.

Not sure if that makes one feel better or worse.

The real issue is the probability of those researchers finding the cause and cure in the next 5 years. Anyone's guess really. But the probabilty of drugs companies making billion of dollars from MS is 100% guaranteed.

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Postby SarahLonglands » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:15 pm

The real issue is the probability of those researchers finding the cause and cure in the next 5 years. Anyone's guess really. But the probabilty of drugs companies making billion of dollars from MS is 100% guaranteed.

Well, it isn't guaranteed at all, because once it becomes clear that most MS can be cured just by taking the right antibiotics, already available, there is no money to be made. Could this be why there is so little interest in finding this to be the case?

Hello Opalgem, pleased to meet you! :)

Sarah
An Itinerary in Light and Shadow Completed Dr Charles Stratton / Dr David Wheldon abx regime for aggressive secondary progressive MS in June 2007, after four years. Still improving with no relapses since starting. Can't run but can paint all day.
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Postby VladFT » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:57 pm

Hi Sarah , good to see you.
I've just made a small statistical analysis on Wilson's question.
And results seem to be interesting :)
Just give me a couple of minutes to type it all up , I'm slow at this.
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Postby VladFT » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:58 pm

Hello Wilson , Bromeley , Sarah and everyone else.
Let me barge in about some statistical analysis. I happened to have some background in it.
I'm in my second phase of a Doctoral program in Operations Research here in the US, and actually I will be teaching probability and statistics this coming fall :) So I got myself one more homework question for my students :)
Your question actually amused me a little , and I decided to spend some time on it.
Putting the mother-in-law question aside (since some genetical predisposition is generally agreed on ) I pose a question like that :
Is one's husband's MS entirely independent of his wife's MS and the other way around ?
Behind this question is of course implicitly a presence or an absence of any pathogen involved in MS.

Here's how I handle it: the problem itself is fairly straightforward , but what does matter here is the data. Of course the analysis will be rough , but it does give some insights. Here's what I took,
on nmss.org they say that currently in the US there a bit over 400 000 MSers, women are around twice as likely to get it than men. Current population of the US is 295M people , let's put it 300 M .
Hence , probability of a male and of a female getting it are
P(m)= 0.4 /(3*150) = 0,000888889
P(f) = 2*0.4 /(3*150) = 0,001777778.
Our hypothesis: No Pathogen Involved => MS for both partners in a married couple is entirely independent !
Then , the probability of both partners in a married couple to have MS is :
p = P(m)*P(f) =~ 1,60 E-06 ( 1.6 in a million).
As we know, probability itself is of no much help, the sample size is crucial ! Hence , to make any sence out of this probability we need to consider the total number of married couples:
In the US it's 57 Million (Statistics of 2000).
Now it's really easy to figure out exactly what are the chances to have
certain number of "MS - marriages" and estimate if out hypothesis is true or not. Because the total number of such events are very well approximated by a Normal Distribution (This is Central Limit Theorem in Action ), but with our number of total marriages (57 Million) and our underlying distribution (it's binomial ! ) the approximation is almost perfect. I don't wanna drone on this , it must be boring :)
But , the bottom line , is that the total amount of "MS-marriages" in the US, has a Normal Distribution with
Mean = 57M * p = 91.2 (on avarage there should be ~ 91 of such marriages)
Variance = 57M * (p-p^2) = 91.2 => Standard Deviation = 9,549869109

I'm sure most of you have Excel , then you can amuse yourself by plotting
this distribution with these parameters.
In particular if we want to test the hypothesis if it's true or not =>
even for a tiny level of significance of 1%, its rejection level is 113,41.

What it means in practice is that under hypothesis of independence,
the total number of marriages with both partners having MS with 99% probability MUST be less then 114

That's why if it turns out that the real number of such marriages in the USA is let's say 150 or 200 or even greater (actually even a 100 would raise a question) then MS can be contracted between people almost certainly. And you can then stamp this letter together with your statistics
of such marriages to the foreheads of all the advocates of MS-Mice community with there beloved money making drug companies and societies :)

For our UK friends you could repeat the analysis with the UK statistics.


I really got interested in such info . I myself already have heard of many on this site. May be we should initiate a poll on this site, to count the people in such marriages ?

Take care.
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Postby VladFT » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:05 pm

Bromley ,
I'm sorry for misspelling your name.

Take care.
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Postby Arron » Fri Jul 22, 2005 4:15 pm

Vlad-- outstanding post! It brought back many memories of college
statistics and probability, which were probably my most challenging courses!

I believe it is time for a poll... feel free to start one, or I can do it as well sometime this weekend.

Great work again... we have such a diverse and intelligent community here, it is simply remarkable.
Disclaimer: Any information you find on this site should not be considered medical advice. All decisions should be made with the consent of your doctor, otherwise you are at your own risk.
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Opalgem Again, Hello

Postby opalgem » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:48 pm

:oops: Well, first I want to thank everyone for the warm welcome and I wish that I could say I have my results and they were all A ok. However the Doctor was mistaken and it is not MS as he first thought. It is however a brain tumor called Meningioma something or other.

I do not take MS lightly and I know what it does to a person because I live with it everyday watching my dear husband and his mom. My symptoms are so similar that there was just no doubt in their minds that MS would be my solid Dx even before the Doc. saw it. What happened?

I knew the MS monster, I know the Fibro monster! This monster I do not know. Anyway, thank you all for having me here. I will always check back because I keep up on MS for my family and learn as much as I can if you all don't mind. God Bless you all!
Judy
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Postby Arron » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:26 am

Judy, our thoughts are with you as you face your unexpected diagnosis. While this is an MS forum by name, by nature we love to help everyone and anyone with neurological challenges. In other words, don't be a stranger and feel free to come to use for any support you may desire.
Disclaimer: Any information you find on this site should not be considered medical advice. All decisions should be made with the consent of your doctor, otherwise you are at your own risk.
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Postby VladFT » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:20 pm

Judy, we support you from the bottom of our hearts. This community is very helpful and understanding.

Take care.
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