This same buildup, however, does not occur in patients treated with the monotherapy, so there is no reason to believe that any addition side effects, including PML, would develop over time. In essence, the effect that Tysabri has after 5 days is the same as it would have after 500 days since it clears the system and then is just replenished with the next infusion. It would be similar to drinking one glass of wine every day for 30 days. You are in no danger of getting drunk, because the previous alcohol has cleared your body before you drink the next glass. And, the 29th glass on the 29th day would have no more effect on you than the 1st glass on the 1st day. Similarly, Tysabri would have the same effect on the immune system after the 1st infusion as it would have after the 29th infusion."
While I appreciate the information and your interpretation, *name removed*, I'm taking the Morgan Stanley report with a large dose of salt, as it's clearly written from the perspective of supporting Morgan Stanley's prediction on Biogen stock.
The unnamed and unidentified experts who were consulted were working from, in my understanding, hearsay about the manifestation of PML in the two patients, and not with access to the actual data and other information within the province of Biogen Idec and/or the clinical trial investigators. Thus, it seems to have at least a healthy dose of speculation underlying the conclusions.
Three other things struck me in my quick read of the report: 1) the report tried to distinguish between MS and PML on the basis that PML affects cognition, memory and mood, but MS doesn't have similar effects. MS most certainly does affect these intellectual aspects, but probably does not deteriorate in the same rapid manner as PML does; 2) out of the ten pages of the report, only 3 addressed the issue of Tysabri and PML and did so in fairly summary fashion; the remaining 7 pages were devoted primarily to regulatory disclaimers and information; and 3) Morgan Stanley seems to rely on patient demand for Tysabri, regardless of safety, as a basis for a prediction that it will return to the market fairly quickly (i.e., within the next 12 months).
I find the last aspect of the report to be fairly insulting, as it sounds like Morgan Stanley is relying on the perceived desperation of MS patients. And, I question the conclusion, since there was a fairly small number of recipients (I believe the Biogen figure was 5,000 scripts written at this point) outside of the clinical trials. Even if some number of them are willing to sign waivers to get Tysabri, I don't think that most of us are willing to risk PML until we know more precisely how and why these two cases developed.
This report does not, in my opinon, change the status of the inquiry into the PML cases at all, nor does it provide any more insight than most of the speculation that has been circulating since Monday's announcement. It is, in the end, a financial analysis and prediction by Morgan Stanley. As I've said before, I'm not going to get my medical information from financial experts. I'll wait and see what the scientific community's conclusions are.
Arron Site Admin
Joined: Feb 02, 2004
Posted: Sun Mar 06, 2005 6:01 am Post subject:
Harry, if this is from the Yahoo! Finance message board, I would give it nearly 0% credence as actually being from a Biogen employee. Most likely it is an ill-informed investor.
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By the way, better2together, you're not the same person who posted it over there, also, are you?"
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