FTY720 Update
Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2005 6:27 am
Interesting update on FTY720 and their speculation that that it could be available for organ transplant patients -- and therefore also available for off-label use -- by 2007. Also the official results of their phase II trial are being released tomorrow.
Novartis Is Seeking to Beat Serono to First MS Pill
June 20 -- Bloomberg -- Serono, Europe's biggest biotechnology company, Novartis AG, Switzerland's largest drugmaker, and Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA are racing to develop the first pill for MS patients, a market that Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch analysts foresee growing 60 percent to $8 billion by 2010. Novartis, which currently relies on products such as the eight-year-old Diovan heart drug for growth, tomorrow releases data on its new oral MS treatment. The drug may be available as early as next year.
``There's a good chance for a filing in 2006 and it could be a threat to everyone, including Serono, Schering AG, and Biogen,'' said Romain Pasche, a fund manager at Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich who oversees about $800 million in health- care stocks. ``That would change the landscape.''
Novartis will present data at the European Neurological Society meeting in Vienna on a study of the medicine, called FTY720, in 281 patients with relapsing forms of the debilitating illness. Existing medicines including Rebif, Avonex and Betaseron all have to be injected. Oral treatments may capture as much as 40 percent of the market, Serono Deputy Chief Executive Jacques Theurillat said April 12.
The Novartis drug has a number of hurdles to overcome. The data being presented is only from the second of the three stages of testing generally required before approval. Regulators are also likely to be cautious following the early approval and then recall of Biogen Idec and Elan Corp.'s Tysabri, Lombard Odier analyst Karl Heinz Koch said.
Analysts at Lehman Brothers estimate FTY720 will garner about $1 billion in sales as an MS treatment, and currently give it just a 30 percent chance of approval. Novartis had $28.2 billion in revenue last year.
According to the Boston-based Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development, it costs about $802 million to get a drug from discovery to market, from $237 million in 1987. Of every 5,000 potential medicines discovered in laboratories, only about five make it to human testing, and only one of those will actually make it to the market.
``What's important about this study is that you establish safety'' for FTY720, Lombard Odier's Koch said. ``That's of course the focus after the Tysabri withdrawal.''
Preliminary data released earlier this month showed that FTY720 cut the rate of MS relapses by about 55 percent compared with placebo. Seventy percent of the patients on placebo were relapse-free, compared with 86 percent of the patients in both groups taking the drug, the study, led by Ludwig Kappos at the University Hospital in Basel, Switzerland, Novartis' hometown, showed.
In a different study, Tysabri cut the rate of MS relapses by 66 percent compared with a placebo in a trial of 942 patients. Data from clinical trials show that interferons like Avonex and Rebif reduce relapses by about 30 to 40 percent.
Analysts are looking for details of the FTY720 study results, including information on how advanced the disease was in the patients included in the trial and on side-effects.
The Novartis product may have an advantage over competitors because it's also being tested for use in organ transplantation, Koch said. Novartis has said that as many as 200 patients have been on the medicine for two years and more in testing for that use.
UBS analysts including David Beadle forecast sales of $225 million in both transplant and MS by 2009. They say their forecast is ``conservative given the $2 billion potential of the product in both indications.''
Novartis plans to ask regulators to approve the drug for use in organ transplantation by ``early 2006.'' Koch said convincing data on MS combined with the drug's availability on the market may lead to ``significant off-label use'' starting in 2007. This would make the treatment available before Serono's Mylinax or Sanofi's teriflunomide, a variant of the company's rheumatoid arthritis treatment Arava.
Serono is working with U.S. partner Ivax Corp. to develop Mylinax, which is in the final round of testing usually required. The company has said it will seek approval of the medicine in 2007. Sanofi-Aventis' teriflunomide is also in phase III trials.
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Novartis Is Seeking to Beat Serono to First MS Pill
June 20 -- Bloomberg -- Serono, Europe's biggest biotechnology company, Novartis AG, Switzerland's largest drugmaker, and Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA are racing to develop the first pill for MS patients, a market that Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch analysts foresee growing 60 percent to $8 billion by 2010. Novartis, which currently relies on products such as the eight-year-old Diovan heart drug for growth, tomorrow releases data on its new oral MS treatment. The drug may be available as early as next year.
``There's a good chance for a filing in 2006 and it could be a threat to everyone, including Serono, Schering AG, and Biogen,'' said Romain Pasche, a fund manager at Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich who oversees about $800 million in health- care stocks. ``That would change the landscape.''
Novartis will present data at the European Neurological Society meeting in Vienna on a study of the medicine, called FTY720, in 281 patients with relapsing forms of the debilitating illness. Existing medicines including Rebif, Avonex and Betaseron all have to be injected. Oral treatments may capture as much as 40 percent of the market, Serono Deputy Chief Executive Jacques Theurillat said April 12.
The Novartis drug has a number of hurdles to overcome. The data being presented is only from the second of the three stages of testing generally required before approval. Regulators are also likely to be cautious following the early approval and then recall of Biogen Idec and Elan Corp.'s Tysabri, Lombard Odier analyst Karl Heinz Koch said.
Analysts at Lehman Brothers estimate FTY720 will garner about $1 billion in sales as an MS treatment, and currently give it just a 30 percent chance of approval. Novartis had $28.2 billion in revenue last year.
According to the Boston-based Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development, it costs about $802 million to get a drug from discovery to market, from $237 million in 1987. Of every 5,000 potential medicines discovered in laboratories, only about five make it to human testing, and only one of those will actually make it to the market.
``What's important about this study is that you establish safety'' for FTY720, Lombard Odier's Koch said. ``That's of course the focus after the Tysabri withdrawal.''
Preliminary data released earlier this month showed that FTY720 cut the rate of MS relapses by about 55 percent compared with placebo. Seventy percent of the patients on placebo were relapse-free, compared with 86 percent of the patients in both groups taking the drug, the study, led by Ludwig Kappos at the University Hospital in Basel, Switzerland, Novartis' hometown, showed.
In a different study, Tysabri cut the rate of MS relapses by 66 percent compared with a placebo in a trial of 942 patients. Data from clinical trials show that interferons like Avonex and Rebif reduce relapses by about 30 to 40 percent.
Analysts are looking for details of the FTY720 study results, including information on how advanced the disease was in the patients included in the trial and on side-effects.
The Novartis product may have an advantage over competitors because it's also being tested for use in organ transplantation, Koch said. Novartis has said that as many as 200 patients have been on the medicine for two years and more in testing for that use.
UBS analysts including David Beadle forecast sales of $225 million in both transplant and MS by 2009. They say their forecast is ``conservative given the $2 billion potential of the product in both indications.''
Novartis plans to ask regulators to approve the drug for use in organ transplantation by ``early 2006.'' Koch said convincing data on MS combined with the drug's availability on the market may lead to ``significant off-label use'' starting in 2007. This would make the treatment available before Serono's Mylinax or Sanofi's teriflunomide, a variant of the company's rheumatoid arthritis treatment Arava.
Serono is working with U.S. partner Ivax Corp. to develop Mylinax, which is in the final round of testing usually required. The company has said it will seek approval of the medicine in 2007. Sanofi-Aventis' teriflunomide is also in phase III trials.
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