New to MS and Posting
New to MS and Posting
I was Dx'd with Fibromyalgia 3 years ago, however a new GP has since decided that the progression of my symptoms as well as new ones are looking more to be MS than just Fibro related. He sent me to a Neuro so the search is on.
I am now waiting for results of my MRI and numerous other tests where goo and wires were applied to my head and body (lol). The irony for me is that my Husband of 6 years and his mother as well both have MS. I have never really heard much about it before I met him and his family. They seemed to recognize it in me right away.
I jept brushing off the symptoms over the years until they could no longer be ignored away. I am not sure if it is MS at this point, but I am looking for answers and I find many of you here are in the same situation. Thanks again for allowing me to be a part of this great group of people.
welcome
Someday, I am hoping ms diagnosis will not be such a severe blow to our outlook for the future. Perhaps a reaction of finding out that you have type 2 diabetes? Dangerous, but with the proper medication and lifestyle, you can lead a normal life.
I am wondering...is anyone a statistician? What are the chances of the husband and motherinlaw having MS and now the wife?
Can you trasmit CPN to other folks?
 Arron
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The chance of your husband's mother getting it was 1 in 750. The chance of your husband getting it was higher as his mother had it (1 in 50 is usually quoted). The chance of Opalgem getting it was 1 in 750.
So the chances of all three of you getting it was:
1 in 750 times 1 in 50 times 1 in 750.
I haven't got a calculator handy, but it must be in the millions (or tens of millions). I've also not adjusted for the gender difference.
Not sure if that makes one feel better or worse.
The real issue is the probability of those researchers finding the cause and cure in the next 5 years. Anyone's guess really. But the probabilty of drugs companies making billion of dollars from MS is 100% guaranteed.
Bromley

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Well, it isn't guaranteed at all, because once it becomes clear that most MS can be cured just by taking the right antibiotics, already available, there is no money to be made. Could this be why there is so little interest in finding this to be the case?The real issue is the probability of those researchers finding the cause and cure in the next 5 years. Anyone's guess really. But the probabilty of drugs companies making billion of dollars from MS is 100% guaranteed.
Hello Opalgem, pleased to meet you!
Sarah
Let me barge in about some statistical analysis. I happened to have some background in it.
I'm in my second phase of a Doctoral program in Operations Research here in the US, and actually I will be teaching probability and statistics this coming fall So I got myself one more homework question for my students
Your question actually amused me a little , and I decided to spend some time on it.
Putting the motherinlaw question aside (since some genetical predisposition is generally agreed on ) I pose a question like that :
Is one's husband's MS entirely independent of his wife's MS and the other way around ?
Behind this question is of course implicitly a presence or an absence of any pathogen involved in MS.
Here's how I handle it: the problem itself is fairly straightforward , but what does matter here is the data. Of course the analysis will be rough , but it does give some insights. Here's what I took,
on nmss.org they say that currently in the US there a bit over 400 000 MSers, women are around twice as likely to get it than men. Current population of the US is 295M people , let's put it 300 M .
Hence , probability of a male and of a female getting it are
P(m)= 0.4 /(3*150) = 0,000888889
P(f) = 2*0.4 /(3*150) = 0,001777778.
Our hypothesis: No Pathogen Involved => MS for both partners in a married couple is entirely independent !
Then , the probability of both partners in a married couple to have MS is :
p = P(m)*P(f) =~ 1,60 E06 ( 1.6 in a million).
As we know, probability itself is of no much help, the sample size is crucial ! Hence , to make any sence out of this probability we need to consider the total number of married couples:
In the US it's 57 Million (Statistics of 2000).
Now it's really easy to figure out exactly what are the chances to have
certain number of "MS  marriages" and estimate if out hypothesis is true or not. Because the total number of such events are very well approximated by a Normal Distribution (This is Central Limit Theorem in Action ), but with our number of total marriages (57 Million) and our underlying distribution (it's binomial ! ) the approximation is almost perfect. I don't wanna drone on this , it must be boring
But , the bottom line , is that the total amount of "MSmarriages" in the US, has a Normal Distribution with
Mean = 57M * p = 91.2 (on avarage there should be ~ 91 of such marriages)
Variance = 57M * (pp^2) = 91.2 => Standard Deviation = 9,549869109
I'm sure most of you have Excel , then you can amuse yourself by plotting
this distribution with these parameters.
In particular if we want to test the hypothesis if it's true or not =>
even for a tiny level of significance of 1%, its rejection level is 113,41.
What it means in practice is that under hypothesis of independence,
the total number of marriages with both partners having MS with 99% probability MUST be less then 114
That's why if it turns out that the real number of such marriages in the USA is let's say 150 or 200 or even greater (actually even a 100 would raise a question) then MS can be contracted between people almost certainly. And you can then stamp this letter together with your statistics
of such marriages to the foreheads of all the advocates of MSMice community with there beloved money making drug companies and societies
For our UK friends you could repeat the analysis with the UK statistics.
I really got interested in such info . I myself already have heard of many on this site. May be we should initiate a poll on this site, to count the people in such marriages ?
Take care.
 Arron
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statistics and probability, which were probably my most challenging courses!
I believe it is time for a poll... feel free to start one, or I can do it as well sometime this weekend.
Great work again... we have such a diverse and intelligent community here, it is simply remarkable.
Opalgem Again, Hello
I do not take MS lightly and I know what it does to a person because I live with it everyday watching my dear husband and his mom. My symptoms are so similar that there was just no doubt in their minds that MS would be my solid Dx even before the Doc. saw it. What happened?
I knew the MS monster, I know the Fibro monster! This monster I do not know. Anyway, thank you all for having me here. I will always check back because I keep up on MS for my family and learn as much as I can if you all don't mind. God Bless you all!
 Arron
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 Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2004 3:00 pm
 Location: California, USA
 Has thanked: 1 time

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