Institute for Complex Systems, National Research Council, Rome, Italy
Collaboration between a human group and artificial intelligence can improve prediction of multiple sclerosis course: a proof-of-principle study.
Background: Multiple sclerosis has an extremely variable natural course. In most patients, disease starts with a relapsing-remitting (RR) phase, which proceeds to a secondary progressive (SP) form. The duration of the RR phase is hard to predict, and to date predictions on the rate of disease progression remain suboptimal. This limits the opportunity to tailor therapy on an individual patient's prognosis, in spite of the choice of several therapeutic options. Approaches to improve clinical decisions, such as collective intelligence of human groups and machine learning algorithms are widely investigated. Methods: Medical students and a machine learning algorithm predicted the course of disease on the basis of randomly chosen clinical records of patients that attended at the Multiple Sclerosis service of Sant'Andrea hospital in Rome. Results: A significant improvement of predictive ability was obtained when predictions were combined with a weight that depends on the consistence of human (or algorithm) forecasts on a given clinical record. Conclusions: In this work we present proof-of-principle that human-machine hybrid predictions yield better prognoses than machine learning algorithms or groups of humans alone. To strengthen and generalize this preliminary result, we propose a crowdsourcing initiative to collect prognoses by physicians on an expanded set of patients.
Pixyl, Research and Development Laboratory, Grenoble, France
Artificial intelligence to predict clinical disability in patients with multiple sclerosis using FLAIR MRI
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to create an algorithm that combines multiple machine-learning techniques to predict the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score of patients with multiple sclerosis at two years solely based on age, sex and fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) MRI data.
Materials and methods: Our algorithm combined several complementary predictors: a pure deep learning predictor based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) that learns from the images, as well as classical machine-learning predictors based on random forest regressors and manifold learning trained using the location of lesion load with respect to white matter tracts. The aggregation of the predictors was done through a weighted average taking into account prediction errors for different EDSS ranges. The training dataset consisted of 971 multiple sclerosis patients from the "Observatoire français de la sclérose en plaques" (OFSEP) cohort with initial FLAIR MRI and corresponding EDSS score at two years. A test dataset (475 subjects) was provided without an EDSS score. Ten percent of the training dataset was used for validation.
Results: Our algorithm predicted EDSS score in patients with multiple sclerosis and achieved a MSE=2.2 with the validation dataset and a MSE=3 (mean EDSS error=1.7) with the test dataset.
Conclusion: Our method predicts two-year clinical disability in patients with multiple sclerosis with a mean EDSS score error of 1.7, using FLAIR sequence and basic patient demographics. This supports the use of our model to predict EDSS score progression. These promising results should be further validated on an external validation cohort.
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