This Is MS Multiple Sclerosis Knowledge & Support Community

A report from a market research organisation based on surveys of neurologists on what will be most successful MS drugs through to 2017

http://www.decisionresources.com/press_ ... _04_09.htm

"Although Tysabri is disadvantaged by its rare incidence of life-threatening side effects, we do not expect any therapy in development for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis to displace it as the clinical gold standard," said Decision Resources Analyst Bethany Kiernan, Ph.D. "While some therapies in development hold promise, most have efficacy, safety and tolerability, and/or delivery features that surveyed neurologists say are inferior when compared with Tysabri."

Slightly surprising as I would have thought the oral medications would be picked to surpass tysabri.

We should do a ThisIsMS report on the MS drug market. I'll bet we can come up with more accurate predictions than this report. It's stunning how something so obviously wrong could be this report's conclusion. If the time horizon was until 2012, I could see how they might be right, but 2017?! Ugh, I hope nobody pays money for this report.

Their 2002-2012 prediction.

"Despite the launch of several novel drugs, interferon beta therapies will remain the top-selling drug class in the MS market throughout the forecast period. Sales of interferon beta therapies in 2002 represented 77% of total sales. We forecast that this share will have decreased to 60% in 2012 as monoclonal antibodies and other emerging agents garner 17% of the total value of the MS market."

that 17% of other emerging agents would include the 50% oral now.

"Monoclonal antibodies will not affect the patient share of current agents because these therapies will most likely be used concomitantly with current drugs."

Tysabri as combination therapy. Uh...

"Another emerging agent, a CC chemokine receptor antagonist, will also be used concomitantly with current drugs, but we expect that the emerging altered peptide ligands will be used as monotherapies. However, use of these altered peptide ligands will only be appropriate in a very small subgroup of patients with chronic progressive MS and will therefore not significantly increase market size."

http://www.decisionresources.com/stelle ... 05530.hcsp

Yes perhaps a thisisms prediction market? Would be interesting!

dignan wrote:I'll Ugh, I hope nobody pays money for this report.

That´s exactly what I thought, too.
I´m quite sure: the future will be slightly different.

ursula

Wow!! They’re outta their paper-pushing, analytical little minds – must be spending too much time smoking stuff that some people can’t get a hold of legally. Predictions through 2017? Worthless. And if there’s nothing newer and better than Tysabri by then, I’m in a lot more trouble than I think I am. I’m not the most optimistic person in the world, but even I believe there are safer and more effective treatments (and for me, please think “pill”) coming much sooner than that.