(SOrry I got in the middle here I was typing this thing

....good observations you guys! Have I mentioned in this thread I did abx? They helped me a lot but I progressed too so Zamboni I hope has the key to that as Sarah and Cheer suggest)
These stories all are all over the spectrum of the MS natural history and individual ones are not necessarily right on average, but I am struck by how long some go with not much going on, that seems to reflect what the natural history research was showing.
I just found that the paper I started this thread with made me have a different view of what MS natural histoy is; it is far less aggressive than we generally percieve, and certainly less than my neuro implied. I was thinking that if Sandy or Sarah or I had had--just about any treatment you can think of--we'd have looked like real success stories for a really long time after that.
Like if everyone starts getting SCT within months of diagnosis because we know it works best if it is given "very early" and if I then had the same 10 years of still can jog and 3 more years before I finally fell off the cliff, would that be called success? ( and I wonder if any longer term side effects from that treatment might have caused some other issues for me in that time frame?)
What does even 5 years of great function mean if the timeline is as it appears in the natrual history paper and it is the norm to have years of good function? And how many studies have 5 years of data to even talk about let alone 10?
I found a free version of a REVIEW of many natural history papers, and it is
FOUND HERE
This review of a huge number of other studies indicates that few of the prognostic indicators usually used to determine "good" or bad course are actually helpful
This systematic review found that the strongest and most consistent predictors of long-term physical disability in patients with relapsing-onset MS are sphincter symptoms at onset and early disease course outcomes. Bladder or bowel symptoms at onset, incomplete recovery from the first attack, a short interval between the first and second attack, and early accumulation of disability should alert clinicians to a potentially worse disease course.
Many MS experts believe that female sex, younger age at onset, optic neuritis, and sensory symptoms at onset indicate a more favorable prognosis in patients with RRMS, whereas motor or cerebellar symptoms at onset predict a more severe course.33-34
In this methodologically rigorous and systematic review, we show that many of these factors have no consistent influence (eg, optic neuritis), weak effects (eg, sex, age at onset, and cerebellar involvement), or no effect (eg, sensory symptoms) on prognosis. A critical review of the existing literature does not support using these factors to guide treatment decisions or predict prognosis for patients with RRMS
So they go on to say that
Many clinical trials in RRMS routinely enroll patients with a normal neurological examination result, regardless of disease duration and the test drug safety profile. The enrollment criteria for these trials make no attempt to target patients at high risk of developing disability. While this may be acceptable for safe drugs, it seems unreasonable for drugs with serious or unknown toxicities. One woman who received natalizumab during one such recent trial2 died of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. According to the findings of this systematic review, she had no significant risk factors for developing long-term disability, and would have been unlikely to benefit from therapy. Until other reliable indicators of prognosis are identified, we recommend that enrollment in clinical trials of drugs with unknown safety or efficacy profiles be restricted to patients with early accumulation of disability, incomplete recovery from a first attack, and/or bowel or bladder symptoms at onset.
Notice that first bold "would have been unlikely to benefit from therapy" What they are saying is that her course was expected, based on these natural MS studies to be mild and no improvement over her EXPECTED mild course could have been obtained.
No matter how terrified she was of her future, no matter how desperate she felt to "cure" her MS (as we all do), it was unlikely that this drug could have improved over her already expected mild course. She was not given good information about what her real prognosis is.
I guess that's the real bottom line for me, what does the natural history of MS mean to the larger body of MS literature and the methods used in today's research community, and are they respecting that and using it to make good decisions as to who to include in studies. And, once they do these studies are they respecting the natural course of MS when they draw their conclusions about how useful these drugs were in changing the course of the study participant's MS.